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Currency Forecasting with Markov Switching Models. Exploring the Joint Behavior of the Term Structure of Forward Exchange Rate Premia and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Charles M.Futrell    
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This study proposes an extension of the Clarida and Taylor framework by developing a Markov–switching model where the dynamics of the spot and forward exchange rate is tied to the term structure of interest rates. They show that they can improve on forecasting the spot exchange rate over the random walk by using the combination of the full term structure of forward premia and a non-linear model. Clarida and Taylor (1993) and Clarida et al. (2001) offer a new alternative for nominal spot exchange-rate forecasting. We motivate theoretically how an endogenous Markov switching model will emerge from a small open economy monetary model of exchange rate determination augmented with a monetary policy rule. Particularly on currencies for which the interest rate term structure has a strong relationship to the realized inflation regime. And we estimate the resulting closed–form solution of the model with a Markov–switching vector error–correction model with a time–varying transition probability matrix. We show that our model can improve substantially over Clarida et al. (2001) model for certain currencies.
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Differe ces i he degree of achieveme mo iva io have bee fou d o be measurable a d o have impor a co seque ces for how a perso behaves i various social si ua io s. Sys ems of a i udes oward au hori y, such as he o io of he au hori aria perso ali y, have bee fou d o rela e o a i udes oward e h ic mi ori ies a d o cer ai aspec s of social behavior. A perso ali y sy drome k ow as Machiavellia ism, amed af er he I alia poli ical philosopher iccolт Machiavelli, has bee used o predic he social ma ipula ive ess of people i i erac io a d heir abili y o domi a e cer ai i erperso al si ua io s. I ves iga ive ech iques umerous ki ds of research me hods a d ech iques are bei g used i social psychology. he radi io of heory-based i ves iga io remai s s ro g i he discipli e. I rece years rigorously exac ma hema ical models of social behavior have bee used i creasi gly i psychological s udies. Such models are projec io s, based o heory a d i ari hme ic de ail, of social behavior i a possible sys em of social rela io ships.O her ech iques i clude he ques io aire a d he i erview, bo h used widely i public opi io polls a d s udies of co sumer prefere ces. hese wo me hods pose a co siderable challe ge o i ves iga ors. he ki d of co rol of he e viro me ha is possible i he labora ory is o available i he field, a d he effec s of sub le variables ha ca be observed i experime s are easily obscured by o her variables ha may exis i a ural e viro me s.Freque ly, behavior i a ural se i gs is sys ema ically observed, or compu ers are programmed o simula e social behavior.

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